@article{abayesianbaselineforbeliefinuncommon,
  title = {A Bayesian baseline for belief in uncommon events},
  author = {V. Palonen},
  year = {2016},
  eprint = {1602.07836},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1602.07836v2},
}