@article{beyondexpectedgoalsaprobabilisticframewo,
  title = {Beyond Expected Goals: A Probabilistic Framework for Shot Occurrences in Soccer},
  author = {Jonathan Pipping-Gamón and Tianshu Feng and R. Paul Sabin},
  year = {2025},
  eprint = {2512.00203},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.00203},
}