@article{prophetaninferablefutureforecasting, title = {PROPHET: An Inferable Future Forecasting Benchmark with Causal Intervened Likelihood Estimation}, author = {Zhengwei Tao and Zhi Jin and Bincheng Li and Xiaoying Bai and Haiyan Zhao and Chengfeng Dou and Xiancai Chen and Jia Li and Linyu Li and Chongyang Tao}, year = {2025}, eprint = {2504.01509}, archivePrefix = {arXiv}, url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.01509v1}, }