@article{simulatedignorancefailsasystematicstudyo,
  title = {Simulated Ignorance Fails: A Systematic Study of LLM Behaviors on Forecasting Problems Before Model Knowledge Cutoff},
  author = {Zehan Li and Yuxuan Wang and Ali El Lahib and Ying-Jieh Xia and Xinyu Pi},
  year = {2026},
  eprint = {2601.13717},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.13717},
}