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Learning Exposure Mapping Functions for Inferring Heterogeneous Peer Effects

In causal inference, interference refers to the phenomenon in which the actions of peers in a network can influence an individual's outcome. Peer effect refers to the difference in counterfactual outcomes of an individual for different levels of peer exposure, the extent to which an individual is exposed to the treatments, actions, or behaviors of peers. Estimating peer effects requires deciding how to represent peer exposure. Typically, researchers define an exposure mapping function that aggregates peer treatments and outputs peer exposure. Most existing approaches for defining exposure mapping functions assume peer exposure based on the number or fraction of treated peers. Recent studies have investigated more complex functions of peer exposure which capture that different peers can exert different degrees of influence. However, none of these works have explicitly considered the problem of automatically learning the exposure mapping function. In this work, we focus on learning this function for the purpose of estimating heterogeneous peer effects, where heterogeneity refers to the variation in counterfactual outcomes for the same peer exposure but different individual's contexts. We develop EgoNetGNN, a graph neural network (GNN)-based method, to automatically learn the appropriate exposure mapping function allowing for complex peer influence mechanisms that, in addition to peer treatments, can involve the local neighborhood structure and edge attributes. We show that GNN models that use peer exposure based on the number or fraction of treated peers or learn peer exposure naively face difficulty accounting for such influence mechanisms. Our comprehensive evaluation on synthetic and semi-synthetic network data shows that our method is more robust to different unknown underlying influence mechanisms when estimating heterogeneous peer effects when compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

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