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A study of the persistence and extinction of malaria in a family of epidemic models

This paper investigates the deterministic extinction and permanence of a family of SEIRS malaria models with multiple random delays, and with a general nonlinear incidence rate. The conditions for the extinction and permanence of the disease are presented. For the persistence of disease, improved analytical techniques are employed to obtain eventual lower bounds for the states of the system, while extinction results are obtained via analyzing the Lyapunov exponent. The basic reproduction number $R^{*}_{0}$ is calculated, and for $R^{*}_{0}<1$, extinction of disease occurs, while for $R^{*}_{0}\geq 1$, the disease persists. But if $R^{*}_{0}\geq 1$, and the expected survival probability of the plasmodium $E(e^{-(\mu_{v}T_{1}+\mu T_{2})})<\frac{1}{R^{*}_{0}}$, then extinction occurs. Results are interpreted, and numerical simulation examples are presented to (a) compare and evaluate the impacts of the intensity of the incidence rate, and the intensity of response to malaria control, on the persistence of malaria in the human population, and (2) to justify the asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium.

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