An age-structured epidemic model with vaccination
In this article, we construct an age-structured model for COVID-19 with vaccination and analyze it from multiple perspectives. We derive the unique disease-free equilibrium point and the basic reproduction number $ \mathscr{R}_0 $, then we show that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when $ \mathscr{R}_0 < 1 $, while is unstable when $ \mathscr{R}_0 > 1 $. We also work out endemic equilibrium points and reveal the stability. We use sensitivity analysis to explore how parameters influence $ \mathscr{R}_0 $. Sensitivity analysis helps us develop more targeted strategies to control epidemics. Finally, this model is used to discuss the cases in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province at the beginning of 2021. We compare reported cases with the simulation to evaluate the measures taken by Shijiazhuang government. Our study shows how age structure, vaccination and drastic containment measures can affect the epidemic.
Code (0)
등록된 구현이 없습니다.
Tasks
modelSensitivitySimilar Papers 제목 키워드 기반
Optimal epidemic control by social distancing and vaccination of an infection structured by time since infection: the covid-19 case study
Motivated by the issue of COVID-19 mitigation, in this work we tackle the general problem of optimally controlling an epidemic outbreak of a communicable disease structured by time since exposure, by the aid of two types…
Role of word-of-mouth for programs of voluntary vaccination: A game-theoretic approach
We propose a model describing the synergetic feedback between word-of-mouth (WoM) and epidemic dynamics controlled by voluntary vaccination. We combine a game-theoretic model for the spread of WoM and a compartmental mod…
Rational social distancing in epidemics with uncertain vaccination timing
During epidemics people may reduce their social and economic activity to lower their risk of infection. Such social distancing strategies will depend on information about the course of the epidemic but also on when they …
Decision MakingModeling the effects of adherence to vaccination and health protocols in epidemic dynamics by means of an SIR model
Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models have been used for decades to understand epidemic outbreak dynamics. We develop an SIR model specifically designed to study the effects of population behavior with respect to h…
Individual vaccination as Nash equilibrium in a SIR model with application to the 2009-10 Influenza A(H1N1) epidemic in France
The vaccination against ongoing epidemics is seldom compulsory but remains one of the most classical means to fight epidemic propagation. However recent debates concerning the innocuity of vaccines and their risk with re…