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Semantic Similarity-Informed Bayesian Borrowing for Quantitative Signal Detection of Adverse Events

We present a Bayesian dynamic borrowing (BDB) approach to enhance the quantitative identification of adverse events (AEs) in spontaneous reporting systems (SRSs). The method embeds a robust meta-analytic predictive (MAP) prior with a Bayesian hierarchical model and incorporates semantic similarity measures (SSMs) to enable weighted information sharing from clinically similar MedDRA Preferred Terms (PTs) to the target PT. This continuous similarity-based borrowing overcomes limitations of rigid hierarchical grouping in current disproportionality analysis (DPA). Using data from the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) between 2015 and 2019, we evaluate our approach -- termed IC SSM -- against traditional Information Component (IC) analysis and IC with borrowing at the MedDRA high-level group term level (IC HLGT). A reference set (PVLens), derived from FDA product label update, enabled prospective evaluation of method performance in identifying AEs prior to official labeling. The IC SSM approach demonstrated higher sensitivity (1332/2337=0.570, Youden's J=0.246) than traditional IC (Se=0.501, J=0.250) and IC HLGT (Se=0.556, J=0.225), consistently identifying more true positives and doing so on average 5 months sooner than traditional IC. Despite a marginally lower aggregate F1-score and Youden's index, IC SSM showed higher performance in early post-marketing periods or when the detection threshold was raised, providing more stable and relevant alerts than IC HLGT and traditional IC. These findings support the use of SSM-informed Bayesian borrowing as a scalable and context-aware enhancement to traditional DPA methods, with potential for validation across other datasets and exploration of additional similarity metrics and Bayesian strategies using case-level data.

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