Conditional Density Estimation with Bayesian Normalising Flows
Modeling complex conditional distributions is critical in a variety of settings. Despite a long tradition of research into conditional density estimation, current methods employ either simple parametric forms or are difficult to learn in practice. This paper employs normalising flows as a flexible likelihood model and presents an efficient method for fitting them to complex densities. These estimators must trade-off between modeling distributional complexity, functional complexity and heteroscedasticity without overfitting. We recognize these trade-offs as modeling decisions and develop a Bayesian framework for placing priors over these conditional density estimators using variational Bayesian neural networks. We evaluate this method on several small benchmark regression datasets, on some of which it obtains state of the art performance. Finally, we apply the method to two spatial density modeling tasks with over 1 million datapoints using the New York City yellow taxi dataset and the Chicago crime dataset.
Code (0)
등록된 구현이 없습니다.
Tasks
Density EstimationNormalising FlowsSimilar Papers 제목 키워드 기반
Kernelised Normalising Flows
Normalising Flows are non-parametric statistical models characterised by their dual capabilities of density estimation and generation. This duality requires an inherently invertible architecture. However, the requirement…
Density EstimationNormalising FlowsPhysics-informed Conditional Normalizing Flows for Angles-only Cislunar Orbit Determination
Generative Astrodynamics is advanced in this work by extending generative modelling to an orbit determination problem in the cislunar environment. The task is formulated as conditional density estimation, aiming to infer…
Density EstimationConformalised Conditional Normalising Flows for Joint Prediction Regions in time series
Conformal Prediction offers a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models, enabling the construction of prediction sets with finite-sample validity guarantees. While easily adaptable to non-…
Conformal PredictionNormalising FlowsPredictionTime Series+1Squared Neural Families: A New Class of Tractable Density Models
Flexible models for probability distributions are an essential ingredient in many machine learning tasks. We develop and investigate a new class of probability distributions, which we call a Squared Neural Family (SNEFY)…
MixerFlow: MLP-Mixer meets Normalising Flows
Normalising flows are generative models that transform a complex density into a simpler density through the use of bijective transformations enabling both density estimation and data generation from a single model. %Howe…
Density EstimationKolmogorov-Arnold NetworksNormalising Flows