paper-with-me

홈 › Papers

Conversational Collective Intelligence (CCI) using Hyperchat AI in a Real-world Forecasting Task

2025-09-27 · Hans Schumann, Louis Rosenberg, Ganesh Mani, Gregg Willcox arxiv

Hyperchat AI is a novel agentic technology that enables thoughtful conversations among networked human groups of potentially unlimited size. It allows large teams to discuss complex issues, brainstorm ideas, surface risks, assess alternatives and efficiently converge on optimized solutions that amplify the group's Collective Intelligence (CI). A formal study was conducted to quantify the forecasting accuracy of human groups using Hyperchat AI to conversationally predict the outcome of Major League Baseball (MLB) games. During an 8-week period, networked groups of approximately 24 sports fans were tasked with collaboratively forecasting the winners of 59 baseball games through real-time conversation facilitated by AI agents. The results showed that when debating the games using Hyperchat AI technology, the groups converged on High Confidence predictions that significantly outperformed Vegas betting markets. Specifically, groups were 78% accurate in their High Confidence picks, a statistically strong result vs the Vegas odds of 57% (p=0.020). Had the groups bet against the spread (ATS) on these games, they would have achieved a 46% ROI against Vegas betting markets. In addition, High Confidence forecasts that were generated through above-average conversation rates were 88% accurate, suggesting that real-time interactive deliberation is central to amplified accuracy.

📄 PDF Abstract BibTeX arXiv:2511.03732

Code (0)

등록된 구현이 없습니다.

Similar Papers 제목 키워드 기반

Towards Collective Superintelligence: Amplifying Group IQ using Conversational Swarms

2024-01-25 · Louis Rosenberg, Gregg Willcox, Hans Schumann, Ganesh Mani

Swarm Intelligence (SI) is a natural phenomenon that enables biological groups to amplify their combined intellect by forming real-time systems. Artificial Swarm Intelligence (or Swarm AI) is a technology that enables ne…

Decision MakingMultiple-choice

Conversational Swarm Intelligence, a Pilot Study

2023-08-31 · Louis Rosenberg, Gregg Willcox, Hans Schumann, Miles Bader 외

Conversational Swarm Intelligence (CSI) is a new method for enabling large human groups to hold real-time networked conversations using a technique modeled on the dynamics of biological swarms. Through the novel use of c…

From Chat Logs to Collective Insights: Aggregative Question Answering

2025-05-29 · Wentao Zhang, Woojeong Kim, Yuntian Deng

Conversational agents powered by large language models (LLMs) are rapidly becoming integral to our daily interactions, generating unprecedented amounts of conversational data. Such datasets offer a powerful lens into soc…

ChatbotQuestion Answering

AI-enhanced Collective Intelligence

2024-03-15 · HAO CUI, Taha Yasseri

Current societal challenges exceed the capacity of humans operating either alone or collectively. As AI evolves, its role within human collectives will vary from an assistive tool to a participatory member. Humans and AI…

Diversity

Internet of Intelligence: The Collective Advantage for Advancing Communications and Intelligence

2019-04-26 · Rongpeng Li, Zhifeng Zhao, Xing Xu, Fei Ni 외

The fifth-generation cellular networks (5G) has boosted the unprecedented convergence between the information world and physical world. On the other hand, empowered with the enormous amount of data and information, artif…