CRPS-Optimal Binning for Univariate Conformal Regression

2026-03-23 · Paolo Toccaceli arxiv

We propose a method for non-parametric conditional distribution estimation based on partitioning covariate-sorted observations into contiguous bins and using the within-bin empirical CDF as the predictive distribution. Bin boundaries are chosen to minimise the total leave-one-out Continuous Ranked Probability Score (LOO-CRPS), which admits a closed-form cost function with $O(n^2 \log n)$ precomputation and $O(n^2)$ storage; the globally optimal $K$-partition is recovered by a dynamic programme in $O(n^2 K)$ time. Minimisation of within-sample LOO-CRPS turns out to be inappropriate for selecting $K$ as it results in in-sample optimism. We instead select $K$ by $K$-fold cross-validation of test CRPS, which yields a U-shaped criterion with a well-defined minimum. Having selected $K^*$ and fitted the full-data partition, we form two complementary predictive objects: the Venn prediction band and a conformal prediction set based on CRPS as the nonconformity score, which carries a finite-sample marginal coverage guarantee at any prescribed level $\varepsilon$. The conformal prediction is transductive and data-efficient, as all observations are used for both partitioning and p-value calculation, with no need to reserve a hold-out set. On real benchmarks against split-conformal competitors (Gaussian split conformal, CQR, CQR-QRF, and conformalized isotonic distributional regression), the method produces substantially narrower prediction intervals while maintaining near-nominal coverage.

📄 PDF Abstract BibTeX arXiv:2603.22000

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