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Decodable Is Not Grounded: A Vision-Ablation Arbiter for VLM Spatial Reasoning

The standard way to read latent knowledge out of a model, a linear probe confirmed by a steering recovery, can systematically overstate what a vision-language model (VLM) actually grounds in the image. We show this on spatial reasoning, where the error is invisible to both probing and steering yet exposed by a one-line causal control: replacing the image with a gray blank. Probes decode the within-axis answer at 73--97% across axes, and a training-free projection lifts a near-chance axis from 59% to 79%, exactly the signature of unlocking latent knowledge. The blank-image arbiter refutes it, revealing three grounding regimes that probing conflates: an axis can be grounded (vision-dependent, correct), a prior (vision-independent, with its decode and its apparent recovery a directional default rather than perception), or, surprisingly, inverted: decodable, causally controllable, but deployed with the wrong sign, so the model scores below chance and the error requires looking. The taxonomy holds across the studied VLMs: in fourteen models spanning six language-model families and 2B--27B, horizontal is grounded, vertical is a prior, and depth is inverted, with the inversion emerging at scale within families. The decode-versus-deploy inversion replicates on seven of eight models across five families, and the minimal edit that re-deploys it varies with geometry: a training-free rotation matches a trained edit on the cleanest model, while distributed inversions need a trained low-rank edit, tracing a per-model correction-complexity spectrum. The cheap, self-calibrating arbiter cleanly separates grounded perception, inverted perception, and prior substitution; we argue it should be a default control for latent-knowledge and steering claims in VLMs.

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