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DINOv3 as a Frozen Encoder for CRPS-Oriented Probabilistic Rainfall Nowcasting

2025-11-14 · Luciano Araujo Dourado Filho, Almir Moreira da Silva Neto, Anthony Miyaguchi, Rodrigo Pereira David, Rodrigo Tripodi Calumby, Lukáš Picek arxiv

This paper proposes a competitive and computationally efficient approach to probabilistic rainfall nowcasting. A video projector (V-JEPA Vision Transformer) associated to a lightweight probabilistic head is attached to a pre-trained satellite vision encoder (DINOv3-SAT493M) to map encoder tokens into a discrete empirical CDF (eCDF) over 4-hour accumulated rainfall. The projector-head is optimized end-to-end over the Ranked Probability Score (RPS). As an alternative, 3D-UNET baselines trained with an aggregate Rank Probability Score and a per-pixel Gamma-Hurdle objective are used. On the Weather4Cast 2025 benchmark, the proposed method achieved a promising performance, with a CRPS of 3.5102, which represents $\approx$ 26% in effectiveness gain against the best 3D-UNET.

📄 PDF Abstract BibTeX arXiv:2511.10894

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Contrastive Response Pairs for Automatic Evaluation of Non-task-oriented Neural Conversational Models

2021-07-01 · SIGDIAL (ACL) 2021 7 · Koshiro Okano, Yu Suzuki, Masaya Kawamura, Tsuneo Kato 외

Responses generated by neural conversational models (NCMs) for non-task-oriented systems are difficult to evaluate. We propose contrastive response pairs (CRPs) for automatically evaluating responses from non-task-orient…

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Random Noise vs State-of-the-Art Probabilistic Forecasting Methods : A Case Study on CRPS-Sum Discrimination Ability

2022-01-21 · Alireza Koochali, Peter Schichtel, Andreas Dengel, Sheraz Ahmed

The recent developments in the machine learning domain have enabled the development of complex multivariate probabilistic forecasting models. Therefore, it is pivotal to have a precise evaluation method to gauge the perf…

DINOv3-Diffusion Policy: Self-Supervised Large Visual Model for Visuomotor Diffusion Policy Learning

2025-09-22 · ThankGod Egbe, Peng Wang, Zhihao Guo, Zidong Chen arxiv

This paper evaluates DINOv3, a recent large-scale self-supervised vision backbone, for visuomotor diffusion policy learning in robotic manipulation. We investigate whether a purely self-supervised encoder can match or su…

MVG-CRPS: A Robust Loss Function for Multivariate Probabilistic Forecasting

2024-10-11 · Vincent Zhihao Zheng, Lijun Sun

Multivariate Gaussian (MVG) distributions are central to modeling correlated continuous variables in probabilistic forecasting. Neural forecasting models typically parameterize the mean vector and covariance matrix of th…

Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting scoring rule Time Series Forecasting Uncertainty Quantification

Fixing the Pitfalls of Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting Evaluation by Kernel Quadrature

2025-03-08 · Masaki Adachi, Masahiro Fujisawa, Michael A Osborne

Despite the significance of probabilistic time-series forecasting models, their evaluation metrics often involve intractable integrations. The most widely used metric, the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), is a…

Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting Time Series Time Series Forecasting