Enhancing Resilience: Model-based Simulations
Since several years, the fragility of global supply chains (GSCs) is at historically high levels. In the same time, the landscape of hybrid threats is expanding; new forms of hybrid threats create different types of uncertainties. This paper aims to understand the potential consequences of uncertain events - like natural disasters, pandemics, hybrid and/or military aggression - on GSC resilience and robustness. Leveraging a parsimonious supply chain model, we analyse how the organisational structure of GSCs interacts with uncertainty, and how risk-aversion vs. ambiguity-aversion, vertical integration vs. upstream outsourcing, resilience vs. efficiency trade-offs drive a wedge between decentralised and centralised optimal GSC diversification strategies in presence of externalities. Parameterising the scalable data model with World-Input Output Tables, we simulate the survival probability of a GSC and implications for supply chain robustness and resilience. The presented model-based simulations provide an interoperable and directly comparable conceptualisation of positive and normative effects of counterfactual resilience and robustness policy choices under individually optimal (decentralised) and socially optimal (centralised) GSC organisation structures.
Code (0)
등록된 구현이 없습니다.
Tasks
counterfactualmodelSimilar Papers 제목 키워드 기반
Enhancing Resilience of Power Systems against Typhoon Threats: A Hybrid Data-Model Driven Approach
This chapter addresses the increasing vulnerability of coastal regions to typhoons and the consequent power outages, emphasizing the critical role of power transmission systems in disaster resilience. It introduces a fra…
Graph-based Simulation Framework for Power Resilience Estimation and Enhancement
The increasing frequency of extreme weather events poses significant risks to power distribution systems, leading to widespread outages and severe economic and social consequences. This paper presents a novel simulation …
Scaling of population resilience with dispersal length and habitat size
Environmental fluctuations can create population-depleted areas and even extinct areas for the population. This effect is more severe in the presence of the Allee effect (decreasing growth rate at low population densitie…
Enhancing Microgrid Resilience with Green Hydrogen Storage
We consider the problem of hydrogen storage integration in microgrids to improve the electricity supply resilience. Nonlinear effects from electrochemical models of electrolyzers and fuel cells for hydrogen storage are c…
Model Predictive ControlSchedulingStochastic Pre-Event Preparation for Enhancing Resilience of Distribution Systems with High DER Penetration
This paper proposes a stochastic optimal preparation and resource allocation method for upcoming extreme weather events in distribution systems, which can assist utilities to achieve faster and more efficient post-event …
Scheduling