Ensemble Machine Learning Methods for Modeling COVID19 Deaths
Using a hybrid of machine learning and epidemiological approaches, we propose a novel data-driven approach in predicting US COVID-19 deaths at a county level. The model gives a more complete description of the daily death distribution, outputting quantile-estimates instead of mean deaths, where the model's objective is to minimize the pinball loss on deaths reported by the New York Times coronavirus county dataset. The resulting quantile estimates accurately forecast deaths at an individual-county level for a variable-length forecast period, and the approach generalizes well across different forecast period lengths. We won the Caltech-run modeling competition out of 50+ teams, and our aggregate is competitive with the best COVID-19 modeling systems (on root mean squared error).
Code (0)
등록된 구현이 없습니다.
Tasks
BIG-bench Machine LearningSimilar Papers 제목 키워드 기반
Attention-Based Ensemble Pooling for Time Series Forecasting
A common technique to reduce model bias in time-series forecasting is to use an ensemble of predictive models and pool their output into an ensemble forecast. In cases where each predictive model has different biases, ho…
Time SeriesTime Series ForecastingvalidModeling and forecasting Spread of COVID-19 epidemic in Iran until Sep 22, 2021, based on deep learning
The recent global outbreak of covid-19 is affecting many countries around the world. Due to the growing number of newly infected individuals and the health-care system bottlenecks, it will be useful to predict the upcomi…
Time SeriesTime Series AnalysisTime Series ForecastingQuantifying the impact of COVID-19 on the US stock market: An analysis from multi-source information
We develop a novel temporal complex network approach to quantify the US county level spread dynamics of COVID-19. The objective is to study the effects of the local spread dynamics, COVID-19 cases and death, and Google s…
Blessing or Curse of Democracy?: Current Evidence from the Covid-19 Pandemic
Background: A major question in Covid-19 research is whether democracies handled the Covid-19 pandemic crisis better or worse than authoritarian countries. However, it is important to consider the issues of democracy ver…
A Benchmark Study by using various Machine Learning Models for Predicting Covid-19 trends
Machine learning and deep learning play vital roles in predicting diseases in the medical field. Machine learning algorithms are widely classified as supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning. This paper conta…
regression