EpiBeds: Data informed modelling of the COVID-19 hospital burden in England
The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic put considerable strain on the national healthcare system in England. In order to predict the effect of the local epidemic on hospital capacity in England, we used a variety of data streams to inform the construction and parameterisation of a hospital progression model, which was coupled to a model of the generalised epidemic. We named this model EpiBeds. Data from a partially complete patient-pathway line-list was used to provide initial estimates of the mean duration that individuals spend in the different hospital compartments. We then fitted EpiBeds using complete data on hospital occupancy and hospital deaths, enabling estimation of the proportion of individuals that follow different clinical pathways, and the reproduction number of the generalised epidemic. The construction of EpiBeds makes it straightforward to adapt to different patient pathways and settings beyond England. As part of the UK response to the pandemic, EpiBeds has provided weekly forecasts to the NHS for hospital bed occupancy and admissions in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland.
Code (0)
등록된 구현이 없습니다.
Similar Papers 제목 키워드 기반
Hospitalization dynamics during the first COVID-19 pandemic wave: SIR modelling compared to Belgium, France, Italy, Switzerland and New York City data
Using the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemiological model, an analytical formula is derived for the number of beds occupied by Covid-19 patients. The analytical curve is fitted to data in Belgium, France, …
Forecasting local hospital bed demand for COVID-19 using on-request simulations
For hospitals, realistic forecasting of bed demand during impending epidemics of infectious diseases is essential to avoid being overwhelmed by a potential sudden increase in the number of admitted patients. Short-term f…
The Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination Delay: A Modelling Study for Chicago and NYC Data
Background: By the beginning of December 2020, some vaccines against COVID-19 already presented efficacy and security, which qualify them to be used in mass vaccination campaigns. Thus, setting up strategies of vaccinati…
Inference of COVID-19 epidemiological distributions from Brazilian hospital data
Knowing COVID-19 epidemiological distributions, such as the time from patient admission to death, is directly relevant to effective primary and secondary care planning, and moreover, the mathematical modelling of the pan…
Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and the vaccination campaign in Italy by the SUIHTER model
Several epidemiological models have been proposed to study the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model, first introduced in [Parolini et al, Proc R. Soc. A., 2021] to a…