Extinction time distributions of populations and genotypes
In the long run, the eventual extinction of any biological population is an inevitable outcome. While extensive research has focused on the average time it takes for a population to go extinct under various circumstances, there has been limited exploration of the distributions of extinction times and the likelihood of significant fluctuations. Recently, Hathcock and Strogatz [PRL 128, 218301 (2022)] identified Gumbel statistics as a universal asymptotic distribution for extinction-prone dynamics in a stable environment. In this study, we aim to provide a comprehensive survey of this problem by examining a range of plausible scenarios, including extinction-prone, marginal (neutral), and stable dynamics. We consider the influence of demographic stochasticity, which arises from the inherent randomness of the birth-death process, as well as cases where stochasticity originates from the more pronounced effect of random environmental variations. Our work proposes several generic criteria that can be used for the classification of experimental and empirical systems, thereby enhancing our ability to discern the mechanisms governing extinction dynamics. By employing these criteria, we can improve our understanding of the underlying mechanisms driving extinction processes.
Code (0)
등록된 구현이 없습니다.
Similar Papers 제목 키워드 기반
Predicting patterns of long-term adaptation and extinction with population genetics
Population genetics struggles to model extinction; standard models track the relative rather than absolute fitness of genotypes, while the exceptions describe only the short-term transition from imminent doom to evolutio…
The Stochastic Gause predator-prey model: noise-induced extinctions and invariance
This paper explores a stochastic Gause predator-prey model with bounded or sub-linear functional response. The model, described by a system of stochastic differential equations, captures the influence of stochastic fluct…
Extinction of bistable populations is affected by the shape of their initial spatial distribution
The question of whether biological populations survive or are eventually driven to extinction has long been examined using mathematical models. In this work we study population survival or extinction using a stochastic, …
PositionThe interplay of extinction and synchrony in the dynamics of metapopulation formation
The idea of a metapopulation has become canonical in ecology. Its original mean field form provides the important intuition that migration and extinction interact to determine the dynamics of a population composed of sub…
Evolutionary adaptation is facilitated by the presence of lethal genotypes
The adaptation rate in theoretical models of biological evolution increases with the mutation rate but only to a point when mutations into lethal states cause extinction. One would expect that removing such states should…