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Forecasting Green Skill Demand in the Automotive Industry: Evidence from Online Job Postings

The global transition toward sustainable economies is reshaping labor markets, yet systematic methods for identifying and forecasting green skills remain limited. This study presents a computational framework to measure and predict green skill demand using online job postings from Mexico's automotive industry, which contributes about 4% of national GDP. We compile a dataset of job advertisements from Indeed Mexico, OCC Mundial, and LinkedIn (July 2024 to July 2025), yielding 204,373 skill records. A two-stage pipeline combining multilingual embeddings and ESCO validation identifies 274 unique green skills across 8,576 occurrences (4.22% of all skills). We benchmark 15 time series forecasting models using a rolling origin evaluation. Transformer-based models, especially FEDformer, Reformer, and Informer, achieve the best performance, with MAE around 2.5e-5 and relative RMSE below 15. We further propose a framework to classify skills by absolute and relative growth, identifying stable, emerging, and high-impact competencies. Results show current demand is concentrated in operational sustainability practices, while the fastest-growing skills relate to renewable energy, recycling, and hydrogen technologies. This pipeline supports data-driven workforce planning in the green transition.

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