Herd immunity under individual variation and reinfection
We study a SEIR model considered by Gomes et al. \cite{Gomes2020} and Aguas et al. \cite{Aguas2020} where different individuals are assumed to have different levels of susceptibility or exposure to infection. Under this heterogeneity assumption, epidemic growth is effectively suppressed when the percentage of population having acquired immunity surpasses a critical level - the herd immunity threshold - that is lower than in homogeneous populations. We find explicit formulas to calculate herd immunity thresholds and stable configuration, and explore extensions of the model.
Code (0)
등록된 구현이 없습니다.
Similar Papers 제목 키워드 기반
Reinfection and low cross-immunity as drivers of epidemic resurgence under high seroprevalence: a model-based approach with application to Amazonas, Brazil
This paper introduces a new multi-strain epidemic model with reinfection and cross-immunity to provide insights into the resurgence of the COVID-19 epidemic in an area with reportedly high seroprevalence due to a largely…
Extending SIRS epidemics to allow for gradual waning of immunity
SIRS epidemic models assume that individual immunity (from infection and vaccination) wanes in one big leap, from complete immunity to complete susceptibility. For many diseases immunity on the contrary wanes gradually, …
SIRS epidemics with individual heterogeneity of immunity waning
We analyse an extended SIRS epidemic model in which immunity at the individual level wanes gradually at exponential rate, but where the waning rate may differ between individuals, for instance as an effect of differences…
The impact of recovery rate heterogeneity in achieving herd immunity
Herd immunity is a critical concept in epidemiology, describing a threshold at which a sufficient proportion of a population is immune, either through infection or vaccination, thereby preventing sustained transmission o…
EpidemiologyThe fallacy of herd immunity
Here we show that herd immunity is not a measure we can implement, trust, control or depend on, and that waiting for herd immunity to play a role is tantamount to hope for the best. Herd immunity is not some protection, …