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Hybrid Optical Turbulence Models Using Machine Learning and Local Measurements

Accurate prediction of atmospheric optical turbulence in localized environments is essential for estimating the performance of free-space optical systems. Macro-meteorological models developed to predict turbulent effects in one environment may fail when applied in new environments. However, existing macro-meteorological models are expected to offer some predictive power. Building a new model from locally-measured macro-meteorology and scintillometer readings can require significant time and resources, as well as a large number of observations. These challenges motivate the development of a machine-learning informed hybrid model framework. By combining some baseline macro-meteorological model with local observations, hybrid models were trained to improve upon the predictive power of each baseline model. Comparisons between the performance of the hybrid models, the selected baseline macro-meteorological models, and machine-learning models trained only on local observations highlight potential use cases for the hybrid model framework when local data is expensive to collect. Both the hybrid and data-only models were trained using the Gradient Boosted Decision Tree (GBDT) architecture with a variable number of in-situ meteorological observations. The hybrid and data-only models were found to outperform three baseline macro-meteorological models, even for low numbers of observations, in some cases as little as one day. For the first baseline macro-meteorological model investigated, the hybrid model achieves an estimated 29% reduction in mean absolute error (MAE) using only one days-equivalent of observation, growing to 41% after only two days, and 68% after 180 days-equivalent training data. The number of days-equivalent training data required is potentially indicative of the seasonal variation in the local microclimate and its propagation environment.

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