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Investigating simple target-covariate relationships for Chronos-2 and TabPFN-TS

2026-05-12 · Gaspard Berthelier, Mariia Baranova, Andrei-Tiberiu Pantea, Etienne Le Naour, Adrien Petralia, Tahar Nabil, Themis Palpanas arxiv

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance, often outperforming supervised models in zero-shot settings. Recent TSFM architectures, such as Chronos-2 and TabPFN-TS, aim to integrate covariates. In this paper, we design controlled experiments based on simple target-covariate relationships to assess this integration capability. Our results show that TabPFN-TS captures these relationships more effectively than Chronos-2, especially for short horizons, suggesting that the strong benchmark performance of Chronos-2 does not automatically translate into optimal modeling of simple covariate-target dependencies.

📄 PDF Abstract BibTeX arXiv:2605.12200

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Chronos-2: From Univariate to Universal Forecasting

2025-10-17 · Abdul Fatir Ansari, Oleksandr Shchur, Jaris Küken, Andreas Auer 외 arxiv

Pretrained time series models have enabled inference-only forecasting systems that produce accurate predictions without task-specific training. However, existing approaches largely focus on univariate forecasting, limiti…

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AI is increasingly supporting, accelerating, and automating scientific discovery across subjects. Yet, the adoption of AI in historical research remains limited due to the lack of specialised solutions for historians. To…

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Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak…

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