Kullback-Leibler Barycentre of Stochastic Processes
We consider the problem where an agent aims to combine the views and insights of different experts' models. Specifically, each expert proposes a diffusion process over a finite time horizon. The agent then combines the experts' models by minimising the weighted Kullback--Leibler divergence to each of the experts' models. We show existence and uniqueness of the barycentre model and prove an explicit representation of the Radon--Nikodym derivative relative to the average drift model. We further allow the agent to include their own constraints, resulting in an optimal model that can be seen as a distortion of the experts' barycentre model to incorporate the agent's constraints. We propose two deep learning algorithms to approximate the optimal drift of the combined model, allowing for efficient simulations. The first algorithm aims at learning the optimal drift by matching the change of measure, whereas the second algorithm leverages the notion of elicitability to directly estimate the value function. The paper concludes with an extended application to combine implied volatility smile models that were estimated on different datasets.
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