LFRT, A MATLAB Toolbox for Load Forecast & Assesment of Additional Capacity for an Electrical Power System
A developing country like Pakistan with sizable pressure on their limited financial resources can ill afford either of these two situations about energy forecast: 1) Too optimistic 2) Too conservative. Unlike all other field of research, load forecasting and reliability fields were lagging such a tool that can provide a juncture of all the function of load forecast and reliability on a single platform. Before the evolution of LOLP assessments of additional capacity of a power generating system was a big problem with different inaccurate solutions. This paper presents LFRT, a MATLAB Toolbox that contains set of routines to calculate the Load Forecast for medium term and long term, Capacity outage rates, capacity outage probability, and LOLP and LOLE, in case of unit’s availability-unavailability, load forecast uncertainty and addition or removal of units. Along with several other examples, LFRT is employed to solve for the assessment of additional capacity of hypothetical model of Tarbela hydro power plant after the installation of Tarbela-IV Extension Project.
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