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Modeling between-farm transmission dynamics of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus: characterizing the dominant transmission routes

The role of transportation vehicles, pig movement between farms, proximity to infected premises, and feed deliveries has not been fully considered in the dissemination dynamics of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV). This has limited efforts for disease control and elimination restricting the development of risk-based resource allocation to the most relevant modes of PEDV dissemination. Here, we modeled nine modes of between-farm transmission pathways including farm-to-farm proximity (local transmission), contact network of pig farm movements between sites, four different contact networks of transportation vehicles (vehicles that transport pigs from farm-to-farm, pigs to markets, feed distribution and crew), the volume of animal by-products within feed diets (e.g. animal fat and meat and bone meal) to reproduce PEDV transmission dynamics. The model was calibrated in space and time with weekly PEDV outbreaks. We investigated the model performance to identify outbreak locations and the contribution of each route in the dissemination of PEDV. The model estimated that 42.7% of the infections in sow farms were related to vehicles transporting feed, 34.5% of infected nurseries were associated with vehicles transporting pigs to farms, and for both farm types, pig movements or local transmission were the next most relevant routes. On the other hand, finishers were most often (31.4%) infected via local transmission, followed by the vehicles transporting feed and pigs to farm networks. Feed ingredients did not significantly improve model calibration metrics. The proposed modeling framework provides an evaluation of PEDV transmission dynamics, ranking the most important routes of PEDV dissemination and granting the swine industry valuable information to focus efforts and resources on the most important transmission routes.

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