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On joint subtree distributions under two evolutionary models

In population and evolutionary biology, hypotheses about micro-evolutionary and macro-evolutionary processes are commonly tested by comparing the shape indices of empirical evolutionary trees with those predicted by neutral models. A key ingredient in this approach is the ability to compute and quantify distributions of various tree shape indices under random models of interest. As a step to meet this challenge, in this paper we investigate the joint distribution of cherries and pitchforks (that is, subtrees with two and three leaves) under two widely used null models: the Yule-Harding-Kingman (YHK) model and the proportional to distinguishable arrangements (PDA) model. Based on two novel recursive formulae, we propose a dynamic approach to numerically compute the exact joint distribution (and hence the marginal distributions) for trees of any size. We also obtained insights into the statistical properties of trees generated under these two models, including a constant correlation between the cherry and the pitchfork distributions under the YHK model, the log-concavity and unimodality of cherry distributions under both models. In particular, we show the existence of a unique change point for cherry distribution between the two models, that is, there exists a critical value $\tau_n$ for each $n\geq 4$ such that the probability that a random tree with $n$ leaves generated under the YHK model contains $k$ cherries is lower than that under the PDA model if $1<k< \tau_n$, and higher if $\tau_n<k\le n/2$.

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