paper-with-me

홈 › Papers

On the calibration of compartmental epidemiological models

2023-12-09 · Nikunj Gupta, Anh Mai, Azza Abouzied, Dennis Shasha

Epidemiological compartmental models are useful for understanding infectious disease propagation and directing public health policy decisions. Calibration of these models is an important step in offering accurate forecasts of disease dynamics and the effectiveness of interventions. In this study, we present an overview of calibrating strategies that can be employed, including several optimization methods and reinforcement learning (RL). We discuss the benefits and drawbacks of these methods and highlight relevant practical conclusions from our experiments. Optimization methods iteratively adjust the parameters of the model until the model output matches the available data, whereas RL uses trial and error to learn the optimal set of parameters by maximizing a reward signal. Finally, we discuss how the calibration of parameters of epidemiological compartmental models is an emerging field that has the potential to improve the accuracy of disease modeling and public health decision-making. Further research is needed to validate the effectiveness and scalability of these approaches in different epidemiological contexts. All codes and resources are available on \url{https://github.com/Nikunj-Gupta/On-the-Calibration-of-Compartmental-Epidemiological-Models}. We hope this work can facilitate related research.

📄 PDF Abstract BibTeX arXiv:2312.05456

Code (1)

nikunj-gupta/on-the-calibration-of-compartmental-epidemiological-models 공식 구현 pytorch

Tasks

Decision MakingReinforcement Learning (RL)

Methods 이 논문이 사용한 방법론

SET Dynamic Sparse Training method where weight mask is updated randomly periodically

Similar Papers 제목 키워드 기반

Epidemiological Model Calibration via Graybox Bayesian Optimization

2024-12-10 · Puhua Niu, Byung-Jun Yoon, Xiaoning Qian

In this study, we focus on developing efficient calibration methods via Bayesian decision-making for the family of compartmental epidemiological models. The existing calibration methods usually assume that the compartmen…

Bayesian OptimizationDecision MakingGaussian Processesmodel

Safety-Critical Control of Compartmental Epidemiological Models with Measurement Delays

2020-09-22 · Tamas G. Molnar, Andrew W. Singletary, Gabor Orosz, Aaron D. Ames

We introduce a methodology to guarantee safety against the spread of infectious diseases by viewing epidemiological models as control systems and by considering human interventions (such as quarantining or social distanc…

Heterogeneously structured compartmental models of epidemiological systems: from individual-level processes to population-scale dynamics

2025-03-14 · Emanuele Bernardi, Tommaso Lorenzi, Mattia Sensi, Andrea Tosin

We develop a general modelling framework for compartmental epidemiological systems structured by continuous variables which are linked to the levels of expression of compartment-specific traits. We start by formulating a…

Data-driven approach in a compartmental epidemic model to assess undocumented infections

2022-01-10 · Guilherme S. Costa, Wesley Cota, Silvio C. Ferreira

Nowcasting and forecasting of epidemic spreading rely on incidence series of reported cases to derive the fundamental epidemiological parameters for a given pathogen. Two relevant drawbacks for predictions are the unknow…

Time SeriesTime Series Analysis

Interpretability of Epidemiological Models : The Curse of Non-Identifiability

2021-04-30 · Ayush Deva, Siddhant Shingi, Avtansh Tiwari, Nayana Bannur 외

Interpretability of epidemiological models is a key consideration, especially when these models are used in a public health setting. Interpretability is strongly linked to the identifiability of the underlying model para…