Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu
We study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on mortality and economic activity across U.S. cities during the 1918 Flu Pandemic. The combination of fast and stringent NPIs reduced peak mortality by 50% and cumulative excess mortality by 24% to 34%. However, while the pandemic itself was associated with short-run economic disruptions, we find that these disruptions were similar across cities with strict and lenient NPIs. NPIs also did not worsen medium-run economic outcomes. Our findings indicate that NPIs can reduce disease transmission without further depressing economic activity, a finding also reflected in discussions in contemporary newspapers.
Code (0)
등록된 구현이 없습니다.
Similar Papers 제목 키워드 기반
First 100 days of pandemic; an interplay of pharmaceutical, behavioral and digital interventions -- A study using agent based modeling
Pandemics, notably the recent COVID-19 outbreak, have impacted both public health and the global economy. A profound understanding of disease progression and efficient response strategies is thus needed to prepare for po…
Decision MakingSelf-similarity in pandemic spread and fractal containment policies
Although pandemics are often studied as if populations are well-mixed, disease transmission networks exhibit a multi-scale structure stretching from the individual all the way up to the entire globe. The COVID-19 pandemi…
Fusing Visual, Textual and Connectivity Clues for Studying Mental Health
With ubiquity of social media platforms, millions of people are sharing their online persona by expressing their thoughts, moods, emotions, feelings, and even their daily struggles with mental health issues voluntarily a…
COVID-ABS: An Agent-Based Model of COVID-19 Epidemic to Simulate Health and Economic Effects of Social Distancing Interventions
The COVID-19 pandemic due to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has directly impacted the public health and economy worldwide. To overcome this problem, countries have adopted different policies and non-pharmaceutical interventi…
Two Burning Questions on COVID-19: Did shutting down the economy help? Can we (partially) reopen the economy without risking the second wave?
As we reach the apex of the COVID-19 pandemic, the most pressing question facing us is: can we even partially reopen the economy without risking a second wave? We first need to understand if shutting down the economy hel…
counterfactual