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Parametric analysis of COVID-19 expansion in European countries in the period of February to June 2020

The data on number of registered cases of COVID-19 disease in twenty European countries is analyzed by the least-squares fitting procedure with generic analytic functions. Three regimes of the expansion of the disease are identified and quantified -- early exponential expansion, damped exponential, and linear expansion. Differences among countries in the early expansion period are quantified. The velocity of the expansion in the exponential regime lies within one standard deviation from the average value for 11 countries. The number of infected individuals at the initial time is excessively high for Italy, 7 standard deviations from the average value. Method for predicting the expansion based on extrapolation in the parametric space is presented. One-week predictions based on extrapolations have average precision of 18% and 29% during the later period of the damped exponential expansion for the case of Italy and Czechia, respectively. The method based on extrapolations in the parametric space may provide an elementary method to quantify the impact of restrictive measures on the spreading of the disease.

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