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Predicting traffic overflows on private peering

Large content providers and content distribution network operators usually connect with large Internet service providers (eyeball networks) through dedicated private peering. The capacity of these private network interconnects is provisioned to match the volume of the real content demand by the users. Unfortunately, in case of a surge in traffic demand, for example due to a content trending in a certain country, the capacity of the private interconnect may deplete and the content provider/distributor would have to reroute the excess traffic through transit providers. Although, such overflow events are rare, they have significant negative impacts on content providers, Internet service providers, and end-users. These include unexpected delays and disruptions reducing the user experience quality, as well as direct costs paid by the Internet service provider to the transit providers. If the traffic overflow events could be predicted, the Internet service providers would be able to influence the routes chosen for the excess traffic to reduce the costs and increase user experience quality. In this article we propose a method based on an ensemble of deep learning models to predict overflow events over a short term horizon of 2-6 hours and predict the specific interconnections that will ingress the overflow traffic. The method was evaluated with 2.5 years' traffic measurement data from a large European Internet service provider resulting in a true-positive rate of 0.8 while maintaining a 0.05 false-positive rate. The lockdown imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic reduced the overflow prediction accuracy. Nevertheless, starting from the end of April 2020 with the gradual lockdown release, the old models trained before the pandemic perform equally well.

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