Regularised Iterative Generalised Least Squares with Optimal Selection of the Hyper-Parameter for Identifying Nonlinear Phenomenological Models
In some fields currently dominated by empirical approaches, such as state of health (SoH) prediction for lithium-ion batteries, phenomenological models motivated by quasi-physical thinking contain parameters to be estimated from experimental data. Often the structure of such models yields fully or partially confounded parameters, which are difficult or even impossible to estimate reliably. To preserve the desired model formulation and simultaneously improve the numerical conditioning for the problem we introduce a ridge regression scheme. An automated method is provided, based on information theoretic measures of model performance, which optimises the ridge regression hyper-parameter at each iteration. The formulae presented require fixed point iteration to solve for the hyper-parameter. Given a suitable starting value, analysis demonstrates convergence is very rapid. The optimal hyper-parameter selection mechanism is incorporated within an efficient regularised iterative generalised least squares mechanism, capable of fitting both heteroscedastic and serially correlated data as required. Simulation confirms the efficacy of the overall method.
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