Sensitivity analysis in an Immuno-Epidemiological Vector-Host Model
Sensitivity Analysis (SA) is a useful tool to measure the impact of changes in model parameters on the infection dynamics, particularly to quantify the expected efficacy of disease control strategies. SA has only been applied to epidemic models at the population level, ignoring the effect of within-host virus-with-immune-system interactions on the disease spread. Connecting the scales from individual to population can help inform drug and vaccine development. Thus the value of understanding the impact of immunological parameters on epidemiological quantities. Here we consider an age-since-infection structured vector-host model, in which epidemiological parameters are formulated as functions of within-host virus and antibody densities, governed by an ODE system. We then use SA for these immuno-epidemiological models to investigate the impact of immunological parameters on population-level disease dynamics such as basic reproduction number, final size of the epidemic or the infectiousness at different phases of an outbreak. As a case study, we consider Rift Valley Fever Disease (RFVD) utilizing parameter estimations from prior studies. SA indicates that 1% increase in within-host pathogen growth rate can lead up to 8% increase in R0; up to 1% increase in steady-state infected host abundance, and up to 4% increase in infectiousness of hosts when the reproduction number R0 is larger than one. These significant increases in population-scale disease quantities suggest that control strategies that reduce the within-host pathogen growth can be important in reducing disease prevalence.
Code (0)
등록된 구현이 없습니다.
Tasks
SensitivitySimilar Papers 제목 키워드 기반
A compartmental model for Xylella fastidiosa diseases with explicit vector seasonal dynamics
The bacterium Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) is mainly transmitted by the spittlebug, Philaenus spumarius, in Europe, where it has caused significant economic damage to olive and almond trees. Understanding the factors that det…
Bayesian InferenceAnalysis of Control Measures for Vector-borne Diseases Using a Multistage Vector Model with Multi-Host Sub-populations
We propose and analyze an epidemiological model for vector borne diseases that integrates a multi-stage vector population and several host sub-populations which may be characterized by a variety of compartmental model ty…
Antigenic cooperation in Viral Populations: Transformation of Functions of Intra-Host Viral Variants
In this paper we study intra-host viral adaptation by antigenic cooperation - a mechanism of immune escape that serves as an alternative to the standard mechanism of escape by continuous genomic diversification and allow…
Sensitivity Analysis of SEIR SEI Model of Dengue Disease
Dengue is a vector borne infectious disease. The disease is transmitted byAedes mosquitoes. In the present work, SEIR - SEI compartmental epidemiological model is used to describe dengue disease transmission dynamics. Th…
SensitivityImmuno-epidemiological model of two-stage epidemic growth
Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza show that the growth rate of the number of infected individuals can increase passing from one exponential growth rate to another one with a larger exponent. Such behavior is not…
modelVocal Bursts Valence Prediction