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The Battle of Information Representations: Comparing Sentiment and Semantic Features for Forecasting Market Trends

The study of the stock market with the attraction of machine learning approaches is a major direction for revealing hidden market regularities. This knowledge contributes to a profound understanding of financial market dynamics and getting behavioural insights, which could hardly be discovered with traditional analytical methods. Stock prices are inherently interrelated with world events and social perception. Thus, in constructing the model for stock price prediction, the critical stage is to incorporate such information on the outside world, reflected through news and social media posts. To accommodate this, researchers leverage the implicit or explicit knowledge representations: (1) sentiments extracted from the texts or (2) raw text embeddings. However, there is too little research attention to the direct comparison of these approaches in terms of the influence on the predictive power of financial models. In this paper, we aim to close this gap and figure out whether the semantic features in the form of contextual embeddings are more valuable than sentiment attributes for forecasting market trends. We consider the corpus of Twitter posts related to the largest companies by capitalization from NASDAQ and their close prices. To start, we demonstrate the connection of tweet sentiments with the volatility of companies' stock prices. Convinced of the existing relationship, we train Temporal Fusion Transformer models for price prediction supplemented with either tweet sentiments or tweet embeddings. Our results show that in the substantially prevailing number of cases, the use of sentiment features leads to higher metrics. Noteworthy, the conclusions are justifiable within the considered scenario involving Twitter posts and stocks of the biggest tech companies.

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