paper-with-me

홈 › Papers

The Complete Anatomy of the Madden-Julian Oscillation Revealed by Artificial Intelligence

2025-12-14 · Xiao Zhou, Yuze Sun, Jie Wu, Xiaomeng Huang arxiv

Accurately defining the life cycle of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the dominant mode of intraseasonal climate variability, remains a foundational challenge due to its propagating nature. The established linear-projection method (RMM index) often conflates mathematical artifacts with physical states, while direct clustering in raw data space is confounded by a "propagation penalty." Here, we introduce an "AI-for-theory" paradigm to objectively discover the MJO's intrinsic structure. We develop a deep learning model, PhysAnchor-MJO-AE, to learn a latent representation where vector distance corresponds to physical-feature similarity, enabling objective clustering of MJO dynamical states. Clustering these "MJO fingerprints" reveals the first complete, six-phase anatomical map of its life cycle. This taxonomy refines and critically completes the classical view by objectively isolating two long-hypothesized transitional phases: organizational growth over the Indian Ocean and the northward shift over the Philippine Sea. Derived from this anatomy, we construct a new physics-coherent monitoring framework that decouples location and intensity diagnostics. This framework reduces the rates of spurious propagation and convective misplacement by over an order of magnitude compared to the classical index. Our work transforms AI from a forecasting tool into a discovery microscope, establishing a reproducible template for extracting fundamental dynamical constructs from complex systems.

📄 PDF Abstract BibTeX arXiv:2512.22144

Code (0)

등록된 구현이 없습니다.

Similar Papers 제목 키워드 기반

Improving the Predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation at Subseasonal Scales with Gaussian Process Models

2025-05-21 · HaoYuan Chen, Emil Constantinescu, Vishwas Rao, Cristiana Stan

The Madden--Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an influential climate phenomenon that plays a vital role in modulating global weather patterns. In spite of the improvement in MJO predictions made by machine learning algorithms,…

Climate Prompting: Generating the Madden-Julian Oscillation using Video Diffusion and Low-Dimensional Conditioning

2026-03-23 · Sulian Thual, Feiyang Cai, Jingjing Wang, Feng Luo arxiv

Generative Deep Learning is a powerful tool for modeling of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in the tropics, yet its relationship to traditional theoretical frameworks remains poorly understood. Here we propose a vide…

A Physics-Guided AI Cascaded Corrector Model Significantly Extends Madden-Julian Oscillation Prediction Skill

2025-10-20 · Xiao Zhou, Yuze Sun, Jie Wu, Xiaomeng Huang arxiv

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an important driver of global weather and climate extremes, but its prediction in operational dynamical models remains challenging, with skillful forecasts typically limited to 3-4 …

Enhanced predictions of the Madden-Julian oscillation using the FuXi-S2S machine learning model: Insights into physical mechanisms

2025-08-22 · Can Cao, Xiaohui Zhong, Lei Chen, Zhiwei Wua 외 arxiv

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical atmospheric variability on intraseasonal timescales, and reliable MJO predictions are essential for protecting lives and mitigating impacts on societal…

DiffObs: Generative Diffusion for Global Forecasting of Satellite Observations

2024-04-04 · Jason Stock, Jaideep Pathak, Yair Cohen, Mike Pritchard 외

This work presents an autoregressive generative diffusion model (DiffObs) to predict the global evolution of daily precipitation, trained on a satellite observational product, and assessed with domain-specific diagnostic…