The Families that Stay Together: A Network Analysis of Dynastic Power in Philippine Politics
Dynasties have long dominated Philippine politics. Despite the theoretical consensus that dynastic rule erodes democratic accountability, there is limited empirical evidence establishing dynasties' true impact on development. A key challenge has been developing robust metrics for characterizing dynasties that facilitate meaningful comparisons across geographies and election cycles. Using election data from 2004 to 2022, we leverage methods from graph theory to develop four indicators to investigate dynastic evolution: Political Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), measuring dynastic power concentration; Centrality Gini Coefficient (CGC), reflecting inequalities of influence between clan members; Connected Component Density (CCD), representing the degree of inter-clan connection; and Average Community Connectivity (ACC), quantifying intra-clan cohesion. Our analysis reveals three key findings. Firstly, dynasties have grown stronger and more interconnected, occupying an increasing share of elected positions. Dominant clans have also remained tightly knit, but with great power imbalances between members. Secondly, we examine variations in party-hopping between dynastic and non-dynastic candidates. Across every election cycle, party-hopping rates are significantly higher (p<0.01) among dynastic candidates than non-dynasts, suggesting that the dominance of dynasties may weaken institutional trust within parties. Finally, applying a Linear Mixed Model regression, controlling for geographic random-effects and time fixed-effects, we observe that provinces with high power asymmetries within clans (high CGCs) and with deeply interconnected clans (high CCDs) record significantly lower (p<0.05) Human Development Index scores. These findings suggest that clan structure, rather than power concentration alone--may be the chief determinant of a ruling dynasty's developmental impact.
Code (0)
등록된 구현이 없습니다.
Similar Papers 제목 키워드 기반
Corpus of Chinese Dynastic Histories: Gender Analysis over Two Millennia
Chinese dynastic histories form a large continuous linguistic space of approximately 2000 years, from the 3rd century BCE to the 18th century CE. The histories are documented in Classical (Literary) Chinese in a corpus o…
Vocal Bursts Valence PredictionDynastic Potential Crossover Operator
An optimal recombination operator for two parent solutions provides the best solution among those that take the value for each variable from one of the parents (gene transmission property). If the solutions are bit strin…
Cluster Analysis of Malware Family Relationships
In this paper, we use $K$-means clustering to analyze various relationships between malware samples. We consider a dataset comprising~20 malware families with~1000 samples per family. These families can be categorized in…
ClusteringKy Fan Norms and Beyond: Dual Norms and Combinations for Matrix Optimization
In this article, we explore the use of various matrix norms for optimizing functions of weight matrices, a crucial problem in deep learning. Moving beyond the spectral norm that underlies the Muon update, we leverage the…
Data-driven Distributed Control to Scale EV Integration into Power Grid
Electric vehicles (EVs) are finally making their way onto the roads, but the challenges concerning long charging times and impact on congestion of the power distribution grid are still not resolved. Proposed solutions de…
Fairness