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The impact of quiescence egg on the efficacy of Wolbachia-carrying mosquito release to suppress or diminish the wild mosquito population

An ordinary differential model is proposed to understand the role of egg quiescence on the efficacy of releasing the Wolbachia-carrying mosquito to suppress or diminish the wild mosquito population. The model has up to four steady states, which are: the persistence of the uninfected population and the extinction of the infected one, the persistence of the infected population and the extinction of the uninfected one, the extinction of both populations, and the persistence of both populations. Their stability is given by four thresholds; two are the fitness of infected and uninfected populations when isolated, and the other two are the relative fitness when they are competing. Bifurcation diagrams, phase space, and parameter space are shaped by the sex ratio that can be manipulated by the Wolbachia symbiont. A sensitive analysis indicates that the uninfected population always maximizes its fitness according to the environmental conditions throughout, changing the quiescence rate. Because Wolbachia-infected eggs do not survive quiescence or adults emerging from it are infertile, the risk of arbovirus transmission increases during or after environmental stress that triggers quiescence. This can jeopardize the use of Wolbachia-infected mosquito to control arbovirus transmissions in regions where quiescence occurs at a high rate.

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