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Using sequence data to study spatial scales of interactions driving spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Great Britain

H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has been recently circulating in previously unseen patterns. As the underlying causes are uncertain, we need a better understanding of the drivers of virus circulation, as they underpin the spread, and inform about the impact of HPAI. We combine infection and bird population data, using Random Forest models to quantify the relationship between spatially aggregated values of possible infection risk factors and viral phylogenetic data from HPAI outbreaks to define scales of interactions that influence virus circulation. As genetic proximity is correlated to transmission proximity, the genetic relationships of sequences and relevant variables indicate the scale and resolution of interactions driving transmission. We used H5N1 Sequences from Great Britain divided into two periods: Dec 2020-May 2022, and Jun-Oct 2022. Final model with selected spatial scales shows that for the first period game bird abundance and geographical distance were the strongest predictors of genetic distance, and for the second period, these were geographical distance, collection date and farm count. Variables related to infections have different spatial scales for analysed periods, while variables describing the environment have more consistent scales. The differences in predictors for the periods bears further investigation, however may be related to differences in the virus, areas of spread, or seasonal factors. This is the first phylogenetic study indicating possible role for game birds in the circulation of HPAI and supports experimental studies but must be viewed with caution as our study does not indicate direct causation. We show that the scale of spatial aggregation is variable dependent and reflects the scale of underlying processes. In the future our findings may be used to study dynamics of HPAI and design targeted surveillance and intervention strategies.

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