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Bayesian Hybrid Machine Learning of Gallstone Risk

Gallstone disease is a complex, multifactorial condition with significant global health burdens. Identifying underlying risk factors and their interactions is crucial for early diagnosis, targeted prevention, and effective clinical management. Although logistic regression remains a standard tool for assessing associations between predictors and gallstone status, it often underperforms in high-dimensional settings and may fail to capture intricate relationships among variables. To address these limitations, we propose a hybrid machine learning framework that integrates robust variable selection with advanced interaction detection. Specifically, Adaptive LASSO is employed to identify a sparse and interpretable subset of influential features, followed by Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) to model nonlinear effects and uncover key interactions. Selected interactions are further characterized by physiological knowledge through differential equation-informed interaction terms, grounding the model in biologically plausible mechanisms. The insights gained from these steps are then integrated into a final logistic regression model within a Bayesian framework, providing a balance between predictive accuracy and clinical interpretability. This proposed framework not only enhances prediction but also yields actionable insights, offering a valuable support tool for medical research and decision-making.

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