paper-with-me

홈 › Papers

Decision structure of risky choice

2017-01-30 · Lamb Wubin, Naixin Ren

As we know, there is a controversy about the decision making under risk between economists and psychologists. We discuss to build a unified theory of risky choice, which would explain both of compensatory and non-compensatory theories. For risky choice, according to cognition ability, we argue that people could not build a continuous and accurate subjective probability world, but several order concepts, such as small, middle and large probability. People make decisions based on information, experience, imagination and other things. All of these things are so huge that people have to prepare some strategies. That is, people have different strategies when facing to different situations. The distributions of these things have different decision structures. More precisely, decision making is a process of simplifying the decision structure. However, the process of decision structure simplifying is not stuck in a rut, but through different path when facing problems repeatedly. It is why preference reversal always happens when making decisions. The most efficient way to simplify the decision structure is calculating expected value or making decisions based on one or two dimensions. We also argue that the deliberation time at least has four parts, which are consist of substitution time, first order time, second order time and calculation time. Decision structure also can simply explain the phenomenon of paradoxes and anomalies. JEL Codes: C10, D03, D81

📄 PDF Abstract BibTeX arXiv:1701.08567

Code (0)

등록된 구현이 없습니다.

Tasks

Decision Making

Similar Papers 제목 키워드 기반

The Role of Time in Making Risky Decisions and the Function of Choice

2015-12-27

The prospects of Kahneman and Tversky, Mega Million and Powerball lotteries, St. Petersburg paradox, premature profits and growing losses criticized by Livermore are reviewed under an angle of view comparing mathematical…

Psychological model of the investor and manager behavior in risk

2019-01-25

All people have to make risky decisions in everyday life. And we do not know how true they are. But is it possible to mathematically assess the correctness of our choice? This article discusses the model of decision maki…

Decision MakingManagement

How General Are Measures of Choice Consistency? Evidence from Experimental and Scanner Data

2025-05-08 · Mingshi Chen, Tracy Xiao Liu, You Shan, Shu Wang 외

Choice consistency with utility maximization is a fundamental assumption in economic analysis and is extensively measured across various contexts. Here we investigate the generalizability of consistency measures derived …

A theory of anticipated surprise for understanding risky intertemporal choices

2025-03-25 · Ho Ka Chan, Taro Toyoizumi

People often deviate from expected utility theory when making risky and intertemporal choices. While the effects of probabilistic risk and time delay have been extensively studied in isolation, their interplay and underl…

Decision Making

Mind the (DH) Gap! A Contrast in Risky Choices Between Reasoning and Conversational LLMs

2026-02-16 · Luise Ge, Yongyan Zhang, Yevgeniy Vorobeychik arxiv

The use of large language models either as decision support systems, or in agentic workflows, is rapidly transforming the digital ecosystem. However, the understanding of LLM decision-making under uncertainty remains lim…

Mathematical Reasoning