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Deep Learning Approach for Predicting 30 Day Readmissions after Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery

Hospital Readmissions within 30 days after discharge following Coronary Artery Bypass Graft (CABG) Surgery are substantial contributors to healthcare costs. Many predictive models were developed to identify risk factors for readmissions. However, majority of the existing models use statistical analysis techniques with data available at discharge. We propose an ensembled model to predict CABG readmissions using pre-discharge perioperative data and machine learning survival analysis techniques. Firstly, we applied fifty one potential readmission risk variables to Cox Proportional Hazard (CPH) survival regression univariate analysis. Fourteen of them turned out to be significant (with p value < 0.05), contributing to readmissions. Subsequently, we applied these 14 predictors to multivariate CPH model and Deep Learning Neural Network (NN) representation of the CPH model, DeepSurv. We validated this new ensembled model with 453 isolated adult CABG cases. Nine of the fourteen perioperative risk variables were identified as the most significant with Hazard Ratios (HR) of greater than 1.0. The concordance index metrics for CPH, DeepSurv, and ensembled models were then evaluated with training and validation datasets. Our ensembled model yielded promising results in terms of c-statistics, as we raised the the number of iterations and data set sizes. 30 day all-cause readmissions among isolated CABG patients can be predicted more effectively with perioperative pre-discharge data, using machine learning survival analysis techniques. Prediction accuracy levels could be improved further with deep learning algorithms.

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