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EST-PRM: Stress-Testing Process Reward Models Before They Become Load-Bearing

Process reward models (PRMs) are widely used in language-model training with dense step-level supervision. They assume PRM scores are stable proxies for step correctness under label-preserving transformations. These transformations change reasoning structure but preserve final answers. We argue this assumption is not well validated. Such transformations can change how PRM scores relate to correctness signals, leading to different failure modes across models.To address this gap, we introduce \textbf{EST-PRM}, a stress-testing framework for dense process rewards. It applies three transformations: (1) step inflation, (2) dependency-aware step reordering, and (3) confidence markers. A vulnerability decomposition is defined that separates reward inflation from loss of correctness sensitivity. Five PRM-style models are evaluated on 4,687 reasoning chains from MATH-500, GSM8K, and PRMBench.The results indicate clear differences in vulnerability patterns across models. Math-Shepherd shows the strongest sensitivity to position perturbations, with a Pearson correlation drop of $0.152 \pm 0.038$ and a $32.8 \pm 4.9\%$ score inflation rate. Qwen2.5-Math-PRM is most affected by step inflation, reaching a $47.6 \pm 4.3\%$ inflation rate. Confidence-based perturbations also distort reward calibration, revealing inconsistencies in correctness estimation. Three mitigation strategies are evaluated, highlighting trade-offs between robustness coverage and false-positive rates.

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