Estimation of the mortality rate functions from time series field data in a stage-structured demographic model for Lobesia botrana
Simulating the population dynamics of a stage-structured population requires the knowledge of the biodemographic functions characterizing the species, namely development, mortality and fecundity. In general, development and fecundity can satisfactorily be estimated starting from literature data. Unfortunately, this is often not the case of the mortality function, because of the lack of experimental data. To overcome this problem we estimate the mortality rate function from field data on the abundance of the species. The mortality is expressed as a linear combination of cubic splines and the estimation method allows to determine its coefficients taking into account the observations measurement error. Moreover, the variability in the estimate is quantified by means of the confidence bands for both mortality and dynamics. The presented method allows to obtain a more flexible shape for the mortality rate functions compared with previous methods applied to the same pest. The method is applied to the case of Lobesia botrana, the main pest in the European vineyards, with abundance data collected in a location in the North of Italy for five consecutive years. Data collected over three years are used to estimate the mortality and to analyze the variability in the estimate and its effects on the population dynamics. Other two datasets are used to validate the model simulating the dynamics using the estimated mortality.
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