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STG-GAN: A spatiotemporal graph generative adversarial networks for short-term passenger flow prediction in urban rail transit systems

Short-term passenger flow prediction is an important but challenging task for better managing urban rail transit (URT) systems. Some emerging deep learning models provide good insights to improve short-term prediction accuracy. However, there exist many complex spatiotemporal dependencies in URT systems. Most previous methods only consider the absolute error between ground truth and predictions as the optimization objective, which fails to account for spatial and temporal constraints on the predictions. Furthermore, a large number of existing prediction models introduce complex neural network layers to improve accuracy while ignoring their training efficiency and memory occupancy, decreasing the chances to be applied to the real world. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel deep learning-based spatiotemporal graph generative adversarial network (STG-GAN) model with higher prediction accuracy, higher efficiency, and lower memory occupancy to predict short-term passenger flows of the URT network. Our model consists of two major parts, which are optimized in an adversarial learning manner: (1) a generator network including gated temporal conventional networks (TCN) and weight sharing graph convolution networks (GCN) to capture structural spatiotemporal dependencies and generate predictions with a relatively small computational burden; (2) a discriminator network including a spatial discriminator and a temporal discriminator to enhance the spatial and temporal constraints of the predictions. The STG-GAN is evaluated on two large-scale real-world datasets from Beijing Subway. A comparison with those of several state-of-the-art models illustrates its superiority and robustness. This study can provide critical experience in conducting short-term passenger flow predictions, especially from the perspective of real-world applications.

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