Heterogeneity and Superspreading Effect on Herd Immunity
We model and calculate the fraction of infected population necessary for herd immunity to occur, taking into account the heterogeneity in infectiousness and susceptibility, as well as the correlation between the two parameters. We show that these cause the reproduction number to decrease with progression, and consequently have a drastic effect on the estimate of the necessary percentage of the population that has to contract the disease for herd immunity to be reached. We discuss the implications to COVID-19 and other pandemics.
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