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Higher-order Structure Prediction in Evolving Graph Simplicial Complexes

Dynamic graphs are rife with higher-order interactions, such as co-authorship relationships and protein-protein interactions in biological networks, that naturally arise between more than two nodes at once. In spite of the ubiquitous presence of such higher-order interactions, limited attention has been paid to the higher-order counterpart of the popular pairwise link prediction problem. Existing higher-order structure prediction methods are mostly based on heuristic feature extraction procedures, which work well in practice but lack theoretical guarantees. Such heuristics are primarily focused on predicting links in a static snapshot of the graph. Moreover, these heuristic-based methods fail to effectively utilize and benefit from the knowledge of latent substructures already present within the higher-order structures. In this paper, we overcome these obstacles by capturing higher-order interactions succinctly as simplices, model their neighborhood by face-vectors, and develop a nonparametric kernel estimator for simplices that views the evolving graph from the perspective of a time process (i.e., a sequence of graph snapshots). Our method substantially outperforms several baseline higher-order prediction methods. As a theoretical achievement, we prove the consistency and asymptotic normality in terms of Wasserstein distance of our estimator using Stein's method.

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