Learning to Select Best Forecast Tasks for Clinical Outcome Prediction
The paradigm of pretraining' from a set of relevant auxiliary tasks and thenfinetuning' on a target task has been successfully applied in many different domains. However, when the auxiliary tasks are abundant, with complex relationships to the target task, using domain knowledge or searching over all possible pretraining setups are inefficient strategies. To address this challenge, we propose a method to automatically select from a large set of auxiliary tasks which yield a representation most useful to the target task. In particular, we develop an efficient algorithm that uses automatic auxiliary task selection within a nested-loop meta-learning process. We have applied this algorithm to the task of clinical outcome predictions in electronic medical records, learning from a large number of self-supervised tasks related to forecasting patient trajectories. Experiments on a real clinical dataset demonstrate the superior predictive performance of our method compared to direct supervised learning, naive pretraining and multitask learning, in particular in low-data scenarios when the primary task has very few examples. With detailed ablation analysis, we further show that the selection rules are interpretable and able to generalize to unseen target tasks with new data.
Code (0)
등록된 구현이 없습니다.
Tasks
Meta-LearningSimilar Papers 제목 키워드 기반
Learning to Select the Best Forecasting Tasks for Clinical Outcome Prediction
We propose to meta-learn an a self-supervised patient trajectory forecast learning rule by meta-training on a meta-objective that directly optimizes the utility of the patient representation over the subsequent clinical …
Improving Clinical Predictions through Unsupervised Time Series Representation Learning
In this work, we investigate unsupervised representation learning on medical time series, which bears the promise of leveraging copious amounts of existing unlabeled data in order to eventually assist clinical decision m…
Decision MakingRepresentation LearningTime SeriesTime Series AnalysisValidating the predictions of mathematical models describing tumor growth and treatment response
Despite advances in methods to interrogate tumor biology, the observational and population-based approach of classical cancer research and clinical oncology does not enable anticipation of tumor outcomes to hasten the di…
ManagementModel SelectionEarly Prediction of Causes (not Effects) in Healthcare by Long-Term Clinical Time Series Forecasting
Machine learning for early syndrome diagnosis aims to solve the intricate task of predicting a ground truth label that most often is the outcome (effect) of a medical consensus definition applied to observed clinical mea…
Time SeriesTime Series ForecastingDisentangled Counterfactual Recurrent Networks for Treatment Effect Inference over Time
Choosing the best treatment-plan for each individual patient requires accurate forecasts of their outcome trajectories as a function of the treatment, over time. While large observational data sets constitute rich source…
counterfactual