Machine Learning vs Statistical Methods for Time Series Forecasting: Size Matters

2019-09-29 · Vitor Cerqueira, Luis Torgo, Carlos Soares

Time series forecasting is one of the most active research topics. Machine learning methods have been increasingly adopted to solve these predictive tasks. However, in a recent work, these were shown to systematically present a lower predictive performance relative to simple statistical methods. In this work, we counter these results. We show that these are only valid under an extremely low sample size. Using a learning curve method, our results suggest that machine learning methods improve their relative predictive performance as the sample size grows. The code to reproduce the experiments is available at https://github.com/vcerqueira/MLforForecasting.

📄 PDF Abstract BibTeX arXiv:1909.13316

Code (1)

vcerqueira/MLforForecasting 공식 구현

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