Probability calibration for precipitation nowcasting
Reliable precipitation nowcasting is critical for weather-sensitive decision-making, yet neural weather models (NWMs) can produce poorly calibrated probabilistic forecasts. Standard calibration metrics such as the expected calibration error (ECE) fail to capture miscalibration across precipitation thresholds. We introduce the expected thresholded calibration error (ETCE), a new metric that better captures miscalibration in ordered classes like precipitation amounts. We extend post-processing techniques from computer vision to the forecasting domain. Our results show that selective scaling with lead time conditioning reduces model miscalibration without reducing the forecast quality.
Code (0)
등록된 구현이 없습니다.
Similar Papers 제목 키워드 기반
RainBalance: Alleviating Dual Imbalance in GNSS-based Precipitation Nowcasting via Continuous Probability Modeling
Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) station-based Precipitation Nowcasting aims to predict rainfall within the next 0-6 hours by leveraging a GNSS station's historical observations of precipitation, GNSS-PWV, and …
Global Precipitation Nowcasting of Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM: A U-Net Convolutional LSTM Architecture
This paper presents a deep learning architecture for nowcasting of precipitation almost globally every 30 min with a 4-hour lead time. The architecture fuses a U-Net and a convolutional long short-term memory (LSTM) neur…
ClassificationregressionIRENE: A Convolutional GRU Ensemble Model for Radar Precipitation Nowcasting over Italy
We present IRENE (Italian Radar Ensemble Nowcasting Experiment), a deep learning model for probabilistic short-range precipitation nowcasting over the Italian domain at \SI{1}{km} spatial and 5 min temporal resolution. I…
Precipitation Nowcasting with Satellite Imagery
Precipitation nowcasting is a short-range forecast of rain/snow (up to 2 hours), often displayed on top of the geographical map by the weather service. Modern precipitation nowcasting algorithms rely on the extrapolation…
Optical Flow EstimationPrecipitaion Nowcasting using Deep Neural Network
Precipitation nowcasting is of great importance for weather forecast users, for activities ranging from outdoor activities and sports competitions to airport traffic management. In contrast to long-term precipitation for…
Management