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Productivity of pre-modern agriculture in the Cucuteni-Trypillia area

(Abridged) We present palaeoeconomy reconstructions for pre-modern agriculture, with the Cucuteni-Trypillia Cultural unity (5,400-2,700 BC, modern Ukraine, Moldova and Romania) as example. The starting point of our analysis is the palaeodiet structure suggested by archaeological data, stable isotope analyses of human remains, and palynology. We allow for the archeologically attested contributions of domesticated and wild animal products to the diet, develop plausible estimates of the yield of ancient cereal varieties cultivated with ancient techniques, and quantify the yield dependence on the time after initial planting and on rainfall (as a climate proxy). Our conclusions involve analysis of the labour costs of the agricultural cycle of both an individual and a farmer's family. Finally, we put our results into the context of the exploitation territory and catchment analysis. The simplest economic complex based on cereals, domestic and wild animal products, with fallow cropping, appears to be capable of supporting an isolated, relatively small farming community of 50-300 people (2-10 ha). Our results strongly suggest that dairy products played a significant role in the dietary and labour balance. The smaller settlements are typical of the earliest Trypillia A but remain predominant at the later stages. A larger settlement of several hundred people could function in isolation only with technological innovations, such as manure fertiliser and ard tillage. Very large settlements of a few hundred hectares could function only if supported by satellite farming villages and stable exchange networks. We also discuss, quantify and assess some strategies to mitigate the risks of arable agriculture associated with strong temporal fluctuations in the cereal yield, such as manure fertilisation, increased fraction of cereals in the diet combined with producing grain surplus for emergency storage.

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