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Supply Chain Trust Decline: Cybersecurity Risks and Corporate Trade Credit

： With the rapid expansion of cyberspace and the fast development of information technology， cyberattacks have become increasingly commonplace. According to the survey of Cybersecurity Ventures， a world-renowned network economy research institution， the economic loss caused by cybercrimes is estimated to reach USD 10.5 trillion per year by 2025. The Chinese government attaches great importance to cybersecurity. General Secretary Xi Jinping profoundly pointed out that “without cybersecurity， there is no national security”. However， existing studies have paid insufficient attention to the cybersecurity issues faced by Chinese enterprises. At present， the digital economy has become an inevitable trend in China’s economy. It can be predicted that the cybersecurity risk exposure of Chinese enterprises will become increasingly prominent. In this context， accurately understanding the economic consequences of enterprise cybersecurity risks and exploring the effective governance strategies of enterprise cybersecurity risks can not only provide theoretical support for the formulation of cybersecurity-related policies in China but also provide new ideas for coping with future digital technology changes. Based on the text analysis method of machine learning， this paper innovatively depicts the cybersecurity risks of Chinese enterprises and empirically examines the impact of cybersecurity risks on the trade credit decision and long-term business relationship of upstream and downstream enterprises. This paper finds that cybersecurity risks significantly reduce corporate net trade credit and customers are more sensitive to enterprise cybersecurity risks than suppliers. The decrease in corporate net trade credit is mainly driven by customers’ risk aversion motivation. In addition， the reputation loss caused by cybersecurity risks is more obvious in enterprises with greater exposure to cybersecurity risks， such as enterprises with higher digitalization or more trade secrets and non-state-owned enterprises， as well as in enterprises with a weaker ability to control losses afterward， such as enterprises with smaller market power， greater financing constraints， and lower management ability. Further analysis shows that cybersecurity risks lead to the dynamic adjustment of the business relationship between customers and enterprises， so that customers allocate more businesses to other enterprises， thus triggering the long term decline of supply chain trust. Strengthening digital governance， risk management， and enterprise communication can effectively alleviate the trust decline caused by cybersecurity risks. The possible contributions of this paper are as follows. Firstly， this paper extends relevant studies on reputation loss of cybersecurity risks from the perspective of supply chain trust. By examining the impact of enterprise cybersecurity risk on the trade credit decision of upstream and downstream enterprises and the adjustment of the long-term business relationship caused by it， this paper provides a new perspective for revealing the transmission mechanism of cybersecurity risks in the supply chain. Secondly， this paper supplements research on the influencing factors of corporate trade credit from the perspective of cybersecurity risks. Digital technology and the real economy are deeply integrated with the rapid development of information technology. While bringing efficiency to enterprises， new technologies generate new cybersecurity problems. Analyzing the impact of cybersecurity risks on corporate trade credit， this paper provides new ideas for understanding trust construction and business dynamics among enterprises in the context of the digital economy. Thirdly， at the methodological level， this paper innovatively uses the text analysis method based on machine learning and take the MD&A text of listed companies’ annual reports as the analysis objects to construct indicators that can comprehensively reflect the cybersecurity risks of Chinese enterprises， providing a useful reference for the subsequent assessment of enterprise cybersecurity risks and their economic impacts.

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