홈 › Papers

Urban Traffic Forecasting with Integrated Travel Time and Data Availability in a Conformal Graph Neural Network Framework

Traffic flow prediction is a big challenge for transportation authorities as it helps plan and develop better infrastructure. State-of-the-art models often struggle to consider the data in the best way possible, as well as intrinsic uncertainties and the actual physics of the traffic. In this study, we propose a novel framework to incorporate travel times between stations into a weighted adjacency matrix of a Graph Neural Network (GNN) architecture with information from traffic stations based on their data availability. To handle uncertainty, we utilized the Adaptive Conformal Prediction (ACP) method that adjusts prediction intervals based on real-time validation residuals. To validate our results, we model a microscopic traffic scenario and perform a Monte-Carlo simulation to get a travel time distribution for a Vehicle Under Test (VUT), and this distribution is compared against the real-world data. Experiments show that the proposed model outperformed the next-best model by approximately 24% in MAE and 8% in RMSE and validation showed the simulated travel time closely matches the 95th percentile of the observed travel time value.

Code (0)

등록된 구현이 없습니다.

Tasks

Methods 이 논문이 사용한 방법론

Similar Papers 제목 키워드 기반